Some of you are jobless. Some of you have had a fantastic run. And some of you will see bonuses flat or down from last year. It’s that kind of year on Wall Street.

The picture of Wall Street bonuses is beginning to shape up. And it’s an inconsistent one. Comp consultant Eric Moskowitz tells Reuters, “There’s going to be a tremendous variance in terms of pay this year … The only other year that compares is 1998.”

While most analysts predict that overall, bonuses will take anywhere from a 5 to 20 percent hit from last year, that’s hardly going to be the case across the board.

Who’s Up and Who’s Down
* those working in favorable areas, like commodities and equity trading will see bonuses up 10 to 20 percent
* meanwhile, in leveraged lending, CDO underwriting, mortgage securities, bonuses could be cut by a third
* average MD bonus — $2 million to $2.5 million, increase of 10% from last year

Meanwhile, the other banks are struggling to retain bankers in the shadow of Goldman’s massive bonus pool.
* Merrill’s John Thain is preparing to pay out 60% of revenue as comp
* UBS capping cash aspect of bonuses to $750,000 (as we previously noted, paying out a greater percentage of bonuses in shares is one way banks are coping)